欧盟峰会：重点关注四点

欧盟峰会：重点关注四点

撰文：KEN ODELUGA

摘要

梅相已经战胜了议会，赢得了脱欧议案的关键胜利。现在，她必须在本周的欧盟峰会上取得欧盟对其蓝图的同意。在这里，要关注四点。

§ 不是脱欧峰会

第一点是，记住这不是脱欧峰会。此次峰会讨论的首要主题是移民。上周末，欧盟匆忙召开“小型峰会”讨论难民问题，以便德国总理默克尔解决政治危机。而这个主题几乎可以肯定将在6月28-29日的会议上进行讨论，暗示将有比原计划更多的时间放在这个问题上。其它的主题是经济与财政、安全与防御。脱欧是倒数第二个主题，甚至可能是最后一个。所以，取得突破性进展的几率不高。

§ 僵局

一旦轮到脱欧对话，英国政府的关键目标将是保证在欧盟10月峰会之前就所有撤退问题达成协议。那次秋季会议一开始是打算敲定涵盖公民权利、财政承担、爱尔兰边境/过渡协议在内的撤出协议，包括关税与政治宣告，主要是关于自由贸易的宣告。但如果欧盟没有同意梅相的脱欧蓝图，前述所有一切都将落空。“人们高度怀疑是否将有可能推进并达成撤出协议”的说法都是温和的，关于欧盟与英国目前在所有关键脱欧问题上的讨论，准确描述其所处阶段的用词应该是“僵持”。如果大家最关切的问题可以达成解决方案，那么对剩余问题得到解决的乐观情绪也可能增加。

§ 硬边境问题

爱尔兰边境问题阻碍着英国顺利脱离欧盟，并且似乎是显而易见的障碍。没人希望重现“硬边界”，但各方自始自终没能达成共识。所以，最终可能就变成硬边界。因为英国政府拒绝了欧盟有关北爱尔兰必须保留同样的关税与监管的规定 – 可能要求在北爱尔兰与英国其它国家之间保留边境 – 欧盟坚称，核查边境将是强制性的。欧盟曾将英国政府的以科技为中心的解决方案，其中的细节少有透露，称为“梦幻岛屿”。

§ 困局

北爱尔兰/关税困局是各路媒 体、英国议会，甚至金融市场认为本周对话达成协议的几率很低的原因。即使英镑在周四受到英国央行更多决策官员同意加息的提振而暴涨，相较4月创下的年内高点，英镑兑美元还是跌逾7%。英镑/美元与英国央行的广义货币指数，仍比脱欧投票结果公布前一晚的价格低近11%。英镑持续贬值实际上是脱欧后市场不看好英国经济的反映。现在，软脱欧的几率上升，几乎可以肯定将减少这种情绪。如果英国政府周五无协议退出欧盟，英镑的反应将最为剧烈。

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EU Summit: what to watch

KEN ODELUGAJUNE 22, 2018 10:13 PM

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EU Summit: what to watch

Summary

Prime Minister Theresa May has seen off Westminster rebels to win a crucial vote on the Brexit bill. Now all she must do is get the EU to agree to her blueprint at next week’s Summit. Here are 4 points to watch.

§ Not the Brexit Summit

The first thing to bear in mind is that this not ‘The Brexit’ summit. At the top of the list of topics for discussion on the Summit’s home page is migration. Talks during a hastily convened ‘mini-summit’ on the subject to be held over the weekend, to enable Germany’s Chancellor Merkel to resolve a political cri s i s over asylum seekers, will almost certainly spill over into the 28th-29th June meeting. This suggests even more time will be devoted to the matter than initially planned. Economy and Finance are next on the agenda, followed by Security and Defence. Brexit is second-to-last. Or rather it would be last, were it not for an item called ‘Euro Summit’: “Finally, the Euro Summit will in an inclusive format…discuss the reform of the economic and monetary union”. The probability of a breakthrough is thereby moderated, even before discussions begin, by the finite amount of time for finely balanced discussions on all topics, but particularly Brexit.

§ Impasse

Once talks get around to Brexit, the government’s key aim will be to secure agreement on all the withdrawal issues by the time of the EU’s October Summit. The autumn meeting was originally intended to finalise a withdrawal treaty covering citizens’ rights, financial commitments, the Irish border/transition deal, including customs and a political declaration, chiefly on free trade. However, none of the above will be discussed if the EU fails to agree on Theresa May’s Brexit blueprint. To say that scepticism abounds on whether it will be possible to move on to a withdrawal treaty is putting it mildly. ‘Impasse’ is an apt word to characterise the stage to which discussion between the EU and UK on all key Brexit issues have reached. If a resolution could only be reached on the most angst-ridden issue of all, optimism would increase on the rest.

§ A hard border issue

The Irish border issue crystallises seemingly intractable difficulties in agreeing how Britain will leave the European Union. No one wants a return to a “hard border”, but all parties have consistently failed to reach consensus on an alternative, so in fact, a hard border may be exactly what happens, at least initially. Because the government rejects the EU’s stipulation that Northern Ireland must retain the same customs and regulations—because it would require a border between NI and the rest of the UK—the EU insists border checks will be mandatory. Brussels has dismissed the government’s technology-based solution, of which few details have been published, as “fantasy island”.

§ Deadlock

Deadlock on NI/customs is the reason for the low probability of agreement assigned to next week’s talks by the media, large swathes of Westminster, and indeed by financial markets. Even after Thursday’s blistering rip by the pound, in reaction to increasing votes by Bank of England policymakers to hike rates, the pound against the dollar remains over 7% lower from the year’s highs in April. Both GBP/USD and the Bank of England’s broader Currency Index remain almost 11% lower than on the night before the Brexit vote results were released. The pound’s persistent devaluation is effectively the post-Brexit discount the market applies to Britain’s economy. Stronger odds of a softer Brexit would almost certainly have narrowed the discount by now. Sterling will be the preeminent market to react if the government leaves Brussels next Friday with no agreement.